RPI = meaningless

Well, well, well - those silver-tongued devils are at it again. The brood of vipers that is the NCAA Selection Commitee.

In the morning light, we can sift through the rubble caused by the wreck of the NCAA Selection Committee (not the tornados and hail) and draw some general conclusions Of course the problem is that the precedent set by this year’s Selection Committee is that the only rule to be followed is that the Committee will act arbitrarily and capriciously in arriving at its conclusion. Nonetheless, here goes:

The RPI isn’t worth much as a predictor. The Selection Committee will use it to rationalize its decisions or ignore it entirely when it is useful under the circumstances. The problem, however, is that the NCAA has strongly urged schools to put together a strong enough schedule to get their RPI and SOS up. Now, after teams like Missouri State have heeded their advice and earned an RPI of 19, they disregard it altogether
Conferernces do get bids and the Selection Committee is keeping track. The single biggest factor in MSU being left out appears to be that the Committee had them 5th in a 4-bid conference. At the end of the process, the Committee was not going to give the MVC a 5th bid at the expense of a 2nd bid for either the WAC, Mountain West or Conference USA, etc. Similarly, the Committee was unwilling to give the MVC more bids than the ACC, Big 12 or PAC 10.
Total out of conference strength of scheudule isn’t as important as playing several high profile games and winning at least one. Example: Air Force’s out of conference schedule was dreadful, but they played and beat Miami (who didn’t make the tournament).
A good win is much more important than a bad loss.
Last 10 games are important, but you better not lose in the first round of your conference tournament.

In the end, however, MSU left itself vulnerable to the vagaries of the Selection Committee by failing to perform well against the other top teams in the Valley and losing in the first round of the conference tournament. As the above demonstrates, a “mid-major” team takes a major risk when it leaves its fate in the hands of the Selection Committee.

But, to be a good sport and a greater fan, I have decided to fill out a bracket prediction (simply picking, no betting) and post to my tournament bracket for all to see.

Enjoy, and let me know your picks, or join my group tournament challenge on ESPN.com. The more the merrier!